Вибори 2010

No surprises in the first round of Ukraine's Presidential election, and little international coverage outside of a few small stories buried on BBC's website.  Ukraine's electoral process requires a candidate to win a 50% mandate in a nationwide vote before assuming the Presidency.  With the industrial east of the country strongly behind Victor Yanukovych and the western and central oblasts undecided on a candidate to assume the tainted Orange mantle, the January 17th vote functioned more as a primary for former Orange supporters, as 18 candidates split the vote sufficiently to necessitate a runoff between the top two candidates on February 7th.  Yanukovych, the villain of 2004, won the opening round handily, as predicted.  Yulia Tymoshenko, the former Orange princess, held off a late surge from banking millionaire Sergei Tihipko to secure the second position in the second round.

Now the fun begins.  Korrespondent, Ukraine's largest news weekly, has maintained a running tally as the votes are counted.  Since last night, Yanukovych's percentage has fallen from over 41% down to 35.39%.  Tymoshenko's tally has risen slightly, from 23% to 25.01%, with future contenders Tihipko and Arseniy Yatsenuk picking up 13.1% and 6.96% respectively.  A first glance would favor Yanukovich in two weeks; this first glance is misleading.  While the beast of the east is sure to pick up the 3.55% that went to Communist Pyotr Simonenko and the 2.34% won by Rada Speaker Vladimir Litvin, Tymoshenko will reap the vast majority of Tihipko, Yatsenuk, and Victor Yushchenko (5.48%) supporters.  By Desultory Eclecticism's unscientific count, if turnout for the February 7th election mirrors the 67% figure seen on Sunday, Tymoshenko should be able to count on 50.5% of the vote.  Fortunately, such events do not occur in vacuums, meaning that the next two weeks should be very interesting.