Вибори vs. Bыборы

The latest poll from Kyiv Post has newcomer Serhiy Tihipko pulling ahead of Yulia Tymoshenko (11% to 10%) for second place in the January 17th election.  While Victor Yanukovich maintains a comfortable lead, it must be remembered that the first electoral round will function more like a primary.  While the eastern half of the country is firmly behind Yanukovich (giving him a total of 34% nationwide), he simply does not have enough support to reach the 50% threshold necessary to obviate a second round of balloting.  The former Orange Coalition has fractured, and a handful of competing politicians is competing for its former constituency.  While most polls still favor Tymoshenko to finish second, whoever reaches 15% on January 17th will pick up nearly all of Arseniy Yatsenyuk's 6% and President Victor Yushchenko's 3%, in addition to the third-place finisher's 10-12%.  Expect to see--to the extent that it is covered at all--a rash of "End of the Orange" stories following Yanukovich's landslide victory in January.  The final vote is penciled in for February 21st--expect to see a much closer race.